Obama and Japan

Stephen Walt recently posted about President Obama's foreign policy successes, or lack thereof. His thesis relates to Obama's failing (to this point) to successfully address the main issues he set out to deal with, especially in light of mounting public dissatisfaction with the administration due to the economy. Moreover, Walt explores the idea that you don't get credit for preventing crises - like an economic collapse, Israeli strike of Iran, or global war. Obama's lack of success on big-ticket items- like Afghanistan, Middle East Peace, and Iran, also makes it harder for him to get credit with the public.

Walt doesn't mention Japan. When seen in light of two wars, a collapsing economy, and tanked soft power, Obama's inheritance in Japan doesn't seem too bad. The US has underwritten Japan's security, and that of the Northeast Asian region, since the end of World War II, and Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Obama recently reaffirmed the value of the alliance as a "cornerstone of security." It isn't that simple. A recent dispute over a set of islands between China and Japan actually may have provided an opportunity for the US to increase it's influence in the region, but at the same time the dispute may also be a prelude for an increasingly belligerent and assertive China, as it grows its sphere of influence. The US-Japan alliance will obviously need to adapt to or accommodate China's rise in some way, and therefore will become even more integral. Still, there are major issues like relocating the Marines stationed at Futenma that need to be resolved before the alliance can begin to deal with newer issues.

Here we come back to Walt. Although he never addresses the issue of Japan in his post, I think it would be interesting to apply his argument to our relations with that country. The exmaple supports his thesis. While Obama has made some progress in figuring out what to do with the Marines, his administration has already seen one prime minister resign over the issue, Congress threaten to defund relocation efforts, and now a reaffirmation of the original plan by the new administration. Obama definitely has an agenda, he's definitely been working on it. When it comes down to it, Obama has avoided a collapse in relations (however significant the risk of that ever was), but he hasn't really helped the cause.

To be fair, it's been a full 15 years since we first began discussing relocating Futenma, but a promise of change shouldn't translate to the continuation of a progress-less status quo.