Today's blog will take the form of a book review. The book in question is In Defense of Japan: From the Market to the Military in Space Policy, written by Saadia Pekkanen, Paul Kallender-Umezu, two self-professed enthusiasts of the minutiae space industry. Luckily, they chose to make their book relevant to people interested in more general aspects of Japanese politics, and the alliance with the United States. The insight paid off, as the book provides an excellent look into the surprising indigenous development of space capability in Japan.
The central point of the book can be summarized with a line from the preface: "Japan has the technical wherewithal to be marked as a military space power and now has placed national security as the centerpiece of its space development strategy." You might be asking yourself when this happened, or how. Well, the authors are well aware of this predicament. In fact, the greatest developments in Japanese space capabilities have taken place out of sight of the media, which only reports a few rocket tests and ballistic missile defense. Instead, they testify that "important answers lie in the market" (2). Oddly, failed investments in space technology over the long run only forced companies to increase those investments to try to cut their losses by coming up with a successful technology. In the end, this sphere proved the most profitable for companies, and the prospect of dual-use civilian/military technologies made the investment worthwhile. These militarily relevant expenditures have translated into military-capable space infrastructure.
Still, there is no cohesive national structure for space exploration/arms development in Japan. Several conferences have discussed the issue, and left the door open for development, but constitutional constraints against rearming have left murky any attempt to centralize the process. Weird that something so complex can emerge with so little bureaucracy, yet civilian and commercial parties control the space "program."
The authors offer a reason for the lack of attention paid to this novel development. They talk about how debates about Japan don't focus on whether they have space capability, but rather just war over which international relations theory should be used to understand Japan, and how that relates to their pacifist nature relates to their ability to militarize. Odd that actual developments should fall through the cracks.
The whole thing is summed up pretty well by reviewer Andrew Nathan in Foreign Affairs:
Today, in addition to ballistic missile defense capabilities developed in cooperation with the United States, Japan is working on reusable launch vehicles (that is, space planes); satellites that detect missiles and help with navigation, communication, and targeting; warhead reentry technologies that can advance the use of missiles in warfare; unmanned aerial vehicles; and technologies for "space situational awareness," which reveal a concern about possible future conflict in space. It is too soon to count Japan out in the arms race in Asia.
Perhaps more surprising than scary at this point, but interesting and worth investigating nonetheless.
Hey Mitch,
ReplyDeleteInteresting post, it's definitely strange how unexpectedly advance capabilities have emerged without any sort of explicit directive. I believe a couple years ago there was some discussion as to whether JAXA might set out to invest in preliminary technologies necessary for an experimental spaced-based solar power system, yet if I remember correctly funding cuts (or maybe just restrictions) prevented any sort of real action in terms of space development? Is this valid/has it changed/how does this fit within what you've read on the subject?
On another note, I've been reading some articles (http://web.mit.edu/cis/pdf/Audit_09_07_Samuels.pdf - though it might be rather dated) lately that speak to the modernization of Japan's Self Defense Force and, more surprisingly, the overhaul of the JCG (coast guard) that now allows it to serve as a de facto military force that circumvents both the constitution and self-imposed spending limits. Do you think this has any sort of implication on Japan's national security posture, or is it all hype?
-Mitchell